The Toronto Maple Leafs entered Tuesday’s NHL Draft Lottery hoping to keep their first-round pick. Instead, they walked away with the No. 1 overall selection in one of the biggest jumps of the modern lottery era.
Toronto entered the night with the fifth-best odds at 8.5 percent and vaulted four spots to secure the top pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. The result capped a miserable season with a major franchise-changing opportunity.
The timing mattered beyond the lottery itself. Toronto’s 2026 first-round selection was top-five protected following the Brandon Carlo trade with the Boston Bruins in 2025. Had the Leafs dropped outside the top five, Boston would have received the pick.
Instead, Toronto now controls the draft board at a critical point for the organization.
A collapse that forced major changes
The Maple Leafs finished 28th in the NHL with a 32-36-14 record after winning the Atlantic Division the previous season. Injuries, defensive breakdowns, and front-office instability pushed the roster into a complete spiral.
Auston Matthews’ season-ending knee injury on March 12 changed everything. Toronto never recovered after losing its captain and top scorer. The Leafs allowed 295 goals, their highest total since 1991, while surrendering a league-leading 2,660 shots.
The departure of Mitch Marner last offseason also exposed the club’s lack of offensive depth. Additions like Nicolas Roy and Matias Maccelli failed to replace Marner’s production or transition play.
From an NHL perspective, Toronto’s structure completely unraveled. Their defensive zone coverage became passive, the blue line struggled under pressure, and the goaltending tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz could not compensate for repeated breakdowns.
General manager Brad Treliving paid the price and was fired on March 30 after a seven-game losing streak closed the season.
Gavin McKenna now becomes the focus
The expectation around the league is clear. Toronto is widely projected to select Penn State star Gavin McKenna with the No. 1 pick.
McKenna posted 51 points in 35 NCAA games and is viewed by many scouts as a franchise-level winger with elite skating and offensive instincts. Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg and defensemen Keaton Verhoeff and Chase Reid remain top prospects, but McKenna sits alone at the top of most boards.
The lottery also signals the beginning of a new era in Toronto. Newly hired GM John Chayka and senior advisor Mats Sundin now inherit a roster needing both immediate fixes and long-term identity changes.
For a team coming off a disastrous season, Tuesday’s lottery may have altered the organization’s direction faster than anyone expected.
2026 NHL Draft First Round: Order of picks
| Pick | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Won lottery (jumped from 5th) |
| 2 | San Jose Sharks | Won 2nd lottery (jumped from 9th) |
| 3 | Vancouver Canucks | Dropped from 1st best odds |
| 4 | Chicago Blackhawks | Dropped from 2nd best odds |
| 5 | New York Rangers | Dropped from 3rd best odds |
| 6 | Calgary Flames | |
| 7 | Seattle Kraken | |
| 8 | Winnipeg Jets | |
| 9 | Florida Panthers | |
| 10 | Nashville Predators | |
| 11 | St. Louis Blues | |
| 12 | New Jersey Devils | |
| 13 | New York Islanders | |
| 14 | Columbus Blue Jackets | |
| 15 | St. Louis Blues | via Detroit Red Wings |
| 16 | Washington Capitals | |
| 17 | Los Angeles Kings | Final position pending playoffs |
| 18 | Washington Capitals | via Anaheim Ducks |
| 19 | Utah Mammoth | Final position pending playoffs |
| 20 | San Jose Sharks | via Edmonton Oilers |
| 21 | Philadelphia Flyers | Final position pending playoffs |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Final position pending playoffs |
| 23 | Boston Bruins | Final position pending playoffs |
| 24 | Vancouver Canucks | via Minnesota Wild |
| 25 | Montreal Canadiens | Final position pending playoffs |
| 26 | Seattle Kraken | via Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 27 | New York Rangers | via Dallas Stars |
| 28 | Calgary Flames | via Vegas Golden Knights |
| 29 | Buffalo Sabres | Final position pending playoffs |
| 30 | Carolina Hurricanes | Final position pending playoffs |
| 31 | St. Louis Blues | via Colorado Avalanche |
| 32 | Ottawa Senators | Final position pending playoffs |
